16 virus vs pareto

Simulating alternative SIR models of a pandemic virus outbreak using a 80:20 pareto as driver, but varying the pareto’s average. Starting with an average of 1 and increasing it to 10, meaning during a week an infected individual will infect 1 to 10 others, the outcome changes dramatically if variation is added to the driving pareto.

The baseline sees around 20m infected per week for a contact rate of 1 while that has to be upped to an average (but random) contact rate of 3 to even remote resembles the fixed contact rate simulation, and then it only peaks at around 10m.